2018 Hotston State EF 5 Tornado
|type = EF 5 Tornado|times = 2027 - 2050 UTC|date = November 12th, 2018|touchdown = ~ 340 kilometres (211 miles) north of Hotston city|injuries = 12|fatalities = 3|damage = $15 million (2018 USD)|areas = Northern Hotston State|image location = F5 Moore 1999 Tornado.png|image caption = The tornado at peak strength, 2041 UTC|tornado season = 2018 Tornado Season}}The 2018 Hotston State tornado '''(locally referred to as the '''November disaster #2) was a powerful EF 5 tornado occuring 340 kilometres (211 miles) north of Hotston city, or 34 kilometres (21 miles) north of Bagan city, in the outer bands of Hurricane Harmony, on November 12th 2018. It marks the most powerful tornado to ever originate from a tropical cyclone, and originated from an unusual arrangement of conditions conductive for supercell development in the outer bands of Hurricane Harmony as it was making landfall. The tornado caused minor damages due to striking rural areas, however the type of the damage it caused was devastating. The tornado covered 12 miles (20 km) during its 23 minute existence, destroying almost a hundred homes, killing 3 people and causing $15 million (2018 USD) in damages, contributing a little to the devastation caused by Harmony, which was making landfall about 340 kilometres (211 miles) south at the time. The tornado touched down at 20:27 UTC November 12th, 34 kilometres (21 miles) north of Bagan city. It moved about 8 kilometres (5 miles) while quickly intensifying to an EF 5, peaking at about 1.5 kilometres (1 mile) wide. It then followed a northeastward track, and weakened over the next 10 minutes and 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) of track, eventually dissipating at 2050 UTC, 23 minutes after touching down, and after it moved about 20 kilometres (12 miles). Large scale search and rescue operations were organized for the effects of Hurricane Harmony mostly, however some forces did spend time in the tornado's search area. On November 13th a state of emergency was declared in Hotston state due to the effects of Hurricane Harmony and the devastation brought by the tornado. Meteorological synopsis The Hotston State tornado was a part of Hurricane Harmony, which made landfall on the same day as this tornado existed. The tornado formed from an unusually strong supercell in the outer bands of the hurricane, and was not well predicted by the DWFC. The tornado formation chance for November 12th in the Hotston Metropolitan Area was thought to be near zero just one day in advance, because the conditions did not appear to be favourable for supercell formation, however it was noted, that, "supercell formation in the area cannot be ruled out". Early on November 12th, things had shifted as the forecasters were noted saying "we have determined that there will be unusually favourable conditions for supercell development in the outer bands of Hurricane Harmony". Later on the day, a potential funnel formation was noted as areas north of Bagan city were put into a tornado watch for 1 hour starting at 1130Z. Weather balloons and radar indicated that supercells were present in the area, and that one of them did indeed have a failed tornado formation. This put the Bagan metroplitan area into a tornado watch in effect for 12 hours starting at 1230Z, as the hurricane was slow moving and its circulation could move thunderstorms into the area for a relatively long time. Storm development and track The supercell that would produce this tornado formed at around 18:00 UTC, out to sea, in the outer rainbands of Hurricane Harmony, developing from a thunderstorm, using shear produced by the hurricane for its advantage. It quickly gained in convection from warm water of the sea, and by 19:00 UTC it was over land, dropping hail up to 4 centimetres in diameter. At 20:00 UTC, radar observations noted that a cyclonic circulation was developing in the supercell, and a few minutes later a funnel cloud was sighted. At 20:10 UTC, a tornado warning was issued for northern Hotston state until 21:30 UTC, adding to the list of warnings the area was under for Hurricane Harmony. At around 20:25 UTC, the rotation in the supercell rapidly increased, culminating in the touchdown of the tornado at 20:27 UTC, an EF1 at the time. The tornado intensified while moving generally north-northeast, and just two minutes after formation it was upgraded to an EF2 based on Doppler on Wheels readings. A tornado emergency was issued for areas north of Bagan City, as the tornado continued intensification and was upgraded to EF3, again based on radar measurements, at 20:32 UTC. Continuing the trend of intensification, at 20:35 UTC, radar indicated winds reached EF4 strength, and the intensification culminated in the tornado attaining a peak of EF5 at 20:41 UTC, peaking in width, and making a turn for the northeast, at which point it started weakening, down to EF4 at 20:42 UTC, EF3 at 20:44, EF2 at 20:46, and EF1 at 20:48. At 20:50 the tornado was observed to lift off the ground, and by 20:52 the funnel cloud was not observable. No more tornadoes followed. In total, 97 homes were completely destroyed by the tornado, with a majority of them getting EF4 or higher damage, as well as 283 homes getting damaged to some extent. At the location of peak intensity, well built houses were completely swept off their foundations, cars were found thrown almost a mile away from their original location, severe ground scouring was observed, and the damage overall was deemed to be of EF5 status. Luckily, due to a large amount of preparations for Hurricane Harmony and high public alertness, when the tornado warning was issued, most people went to shelter, and only 3 fatalities were confirmed.